Two weeks ago the Ball State University football team was 5-3 fresh off a win at Western Michigan University. It seemed a lock that the Cardinals would be playing in a bowl game for the first time since 1996. However, after two losses the bowl berth is in question.
The Mid-American Conference has three bowl games, Motor City Bowl, GMAC Bowl and the International Bowl. Central Michigan University has locked up the MAC West and already is bowl eligible at 6-4. A bowl game isn't a complete lock yet for the Chippewas. If they lose their last two games and the MAC Championship game they are not bowl eligible at 6-7. That is high unlikely, so let's just say they win one of the three and get a bowl game. That leaves two bowl games.
The MAC East champion, if bowl eligible, will get a bid. Right now Miami University and the University of Buffalo are tied atop the MAC East at 3-1. Miami holds the tie breaker and thus if the Redhawks win out they win the division. Miami is 5-5 while the Bulls are 4-6, but neither team's bowl chances look all too bright. The Redhawks have to win two more games to lock up a bowl game. If they go 1-1 to finish the season and Buffalo overtakes them in the East they will be 6-6, which is no guarantee for a bowl game. If Miami still wins the East after a 1-1 finish it would have to win the MAC Championship game against Central Michigan to remain above .500 and still be bowl eligible.
Buffalo is in even worse position. If the Bulls are to win the division they need to win out. That would make them 6-6 and put them in the same predicament as Miami; needing a win in the MAC Championship game.
So with only one of the three bowl games taken, the door is open for other teams in the MAC who won't be winning a division. Ball State is one, along with Bowling Green State University and the University of Toledo.
Technically Ohio University and the University of Akron could still receive a bowl. However, Ohio is 5-6 and needing a win against Miami just to be bowl eligible. Even then it would be only .500 in MAC play and 6-6 overall.
Akron is 4-6, needing to win two straight games to be bowl eligible and one of those games is against Central Michigan. And even if the Zips do win out, they would still be just 6-6 and .500 in MAC play. So that leaves Bowling Green, Ball State, and Toledo as the teams who will get either one or two bowl berths depending on what happens with the MAC East champion.
Bowling Green is already 6-4, meaning one more win locks up a bowl game for the Falcons. However, two good opponents remain on their schedule. They play Buffalo in Buffalo this Saturday, followed by a home game against Toledo.
Speaking of the Rockets, they are in the same position as Ball State at 5-5. This means tonight's game in Scheumann Stadium will all but squash one team's bowl hopes. Whoever loses will be 5-6, and with eight MAC teams having the chance to finish 6-6 or better, would probably not get one of the three bowls. Ball State will NOT get a bowl game with a 6-6 season and having lost three of the last four games to finish, so in many ways the Cardinals season will be decided tonight.
Will it be another disappointing Ball State football season defined by a defense that was unable to stop other teams, or will it be a season of success defined by the first bowl game in 11 years? Go to Scheumann Stadium for tonight's game if you want to find out.
Write to Levin at levintblack@gmail.com