The Republican Party will be walking a tightrope the next few years while trying to maintain their stranglehold on the White House. It won't be long before they must decide whom they will nominate after George W. Bush.
A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll indicated that the early favorite among Republicans for the 2008 nomination is former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who was the preference of 33 percent of the respondents.
Giuliani went from being a mediocre mayor to a national hero overnight after his handling of the September 11th crisis and has maintained his widespread popularity. A recent poll indicated that only 12 percent of respondents viewed the former mayor unfavorably, which is an extremely low percentage is for a serious presidential contender.
Despite the very high electability of Giuliani, he has a very serious drawback for the GOP --- he's practically a Democrat.
Even though he supported President Bush for reelection, Giuliani holds some very non-conservative and, dare I say, liberal views regarding social issues. He is pro-choice, pro-gay rights and pro-gun control, and that does not sit well with the social conservative base of the Republican Party.
Conventional wisdom holds that it was the massive turnout from social conservative voters that put George W. Bush over the top in 2008, and if I was in charge of the Republican Party, I would not be counting on those same voters to turnout to support Giuliani.
So therein lies the problem for the Republicans. They can either nominate the most electable candidate while trading in their values, or they can stand by their social conservatism and send a less popular candidate into the general election.
I can just see the GOP bosses thinking about the last time they nominated a maverick New York politician -- it was Teddy Roosevelt, and he ended up being a champion of progressive causes and an enemy of the filthy rich. It's quite obvious that the Republican Party wouldn't want that to happen again.
In fact, if Giuliani somehow did manage to wrestle the nomination from the far-right forces within the party, there would also be hope for the Democrats in spite of his popularity. I believe that there is no way that the religious right would ever support a candidate like Giuliani, and as a result, they would most likely either sit out the 2008 election or run a strong third-party candidate. In either scenario, the Republican Party would be crippled or split, and a Democrat would be almost guaranteed to win.
And Giuliani's not the only person who could cause some upset stomachs for the right-wing forces within the GOP. John McCain, Christie Todd Whitman and, in the rare case of a constitutional amendment, Arnold Schwarzenegger are all potential candidates who stand far left of the current White House.
Write to Steve at NawaraInTheDN@hotmail.com
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