Are Americans down on downloading?
The music industry's fondest hopes might actually have come true: The much-publicized lawsuits against those who illegally "share" copyrighted music have slowed online music piracy, say the authors of two independent studies released this week.
The first, from the Pew Internet & American Life Project, is dramatic, though it comes with an asterisk. It required respondents to be honest about an activity that most now understand is unlawful. And, for legal reasons, Pew researchers did not include data from minors, though studies say most school-age kids see nothing wrong with filching tunes.
Among adults, the Pew found that the number who admitted to downloading fell by more than 50 percent between spring and fall.
Of the 1,358 Internet users polled in November and December, 14 percent fessed up to unauthorized file-sharing. During a survey of the same size conducted in March, April and May, 29 percent acknowledged trading copyrighted files.
A fifth of those who said they continued to download claimed they were doing it less.
The second study, from comScore Media Metrix, didn't rely on respondents' candor: It measured actual use of four popular file-sharing programs from U.S. computers.
In each case, contrasting figures for November 2003 and 2002, use was down between 9 and 59 percent.
"If this is all true, that's a major deal," said Jerry Goolsby, a professor of music industry studies at Loyola University New Orleans.
The news comes just after anxious bean counters celebrated results of the first-ever tally of downloaded-music sales. According to Nielsen SoundScan, the 19.2 million for-fee songs distributed since June helped stem a three-year slump in overall music sales.
Though U.S. sales through traditional means fell last year, the drop was only 0.8 percent when sales of downloaded albums and tracks were included. Worldwide, however, where music piracy runs rampant, overall sales for the first half of 2003 fell by 11 percent, according to the International Federation of Phonograph Industries. Year-end numbers are not yet available.
Lee Rainie, the Pew project director, attributes the falloff in illegal downloading to the 382 lawsuits the Recording Industry Association of America has filed since September against those it suspects of sharing copyrighted music.
The music industry blames downloading for its moribund album sales, which have declined by 31 percent in the last three years. An August report by Forrester Research estimated that file-sharing was robbing the business of $700 million annually.
Last spring, before the RIAA's consciousness-raising lawsuits, many of those polled claimed they would stop if downloading were unlawful, Rainie said.
"Before these subpoenas became an important part of the story, people thought they were on the right side of the line," he said. "All of a sudden the presumption changed. They said, 'Well, maybe it's not OK. I certainly don't want to have a multi-thousand-dollar fine levied on me.'"
Still, Rainie said, he was surprised by the Pew study's fall numbers, so he asked researchers at comScore Media Metrix in Reston, Va., whether they were seeing the same thing. ComScore's figures were just as strong.
ComScore found that in November, 15 percent fewer U.S computers were running Kazaa, the most popular peer-to-peer file-sharing application, than in November 2002. Use of WinMX, another file-sharing site, was down 25 percent, BearShare was down 9 percent, and Grokster was down 59 percent.
"The lawsuits are having a significant effect on behavior here," said Graham Mudd, a comScore analyst.
Eric Garland isn't so sure.
He is chief executive officer of BigChampagne.com, which monitors worldwide use of the largest file-sharing networks, including Kazaa, iMesh and Grokster.
"Once you correct for seasonal ebbs and flows, the big picture is that file-sharing (internationally) is on the rise," he said.
Last year, 26 percent more people across the globe used the major peer-to-peer applications than in 2002 -- an average of 4.3 million users at any one time, according to Garland's figures. November was the second-busiest month ever for free file sharing, despite the introduction of several well-advertised fee-based music sites.
To put the numbers in perspective, Apple Computer hopes to sell 100 million songs online by April, the first anniversary of its iTunes Web site. Worldwide, 10 times that many songs change hands unlawfully every week, Garland estimates.
What the Pew study missed, Garland said, is that file-sharing always peaks in the spring. Last April saw the most users since BigChampagne started monitoring in 2000.
Garland expects that the numbers will break records again this spring as people realize that the RIAA litigation is aimed only at mega-users, and that unless they pass along music as well as take it, the likelihood of getting caught is negligible.
And with all those new holiday MP3 players to load up, the temptation to harvest free music is hard to resist.
"Nobody's ever gotten into trouble for downloading anything," Garland said. "You really are anonymous. I suspect (for now) people are governed by fear."
___
I CAN STEAL THAT SONG IN ONE STROKE
If there's any doubt about the age of those likely to pilfer copyrighted music, it's answered by a survey of the most-grabbed tunes worldwide on major file-sharing sites between Dec. 29 and Monday.
Rank/Artist/Song
1. Outkast "Hey Ya"
2. Kelis "Milkshake"
3. Outkast "The Way You Move"
4. No Doubt "It's My Life"
5. Limp Bizkit "Behind Blue Eyes"
6. Twista "Slow Jam"
7. Lil Jon "Get Low"
8. Nickelback "Someday"
9. 3 Doors Down "Here Without You"
10. Linkin Park "Numb"
(Source: BigChampagne.com.)
Read More
Three Air Jam teams take home the win
October 12, 2012Nineteen teams shimmied, shook and flipped for a sold out John R. Emens Auditorium on Thursday night during the 25th annual Air Jam.
Bill Clinton Speaks at North Central High School
October 12, 2012Former President's Speech Could Have Effect on State Senate Race
