A Parisian showgirl, a young hobbit and a schizophrenic math professor will duke it out at the Academy Awards Sunday night.
Early last year a few films emerged as potential favorites to take home an Oscar, and for a while it seemed as if "Moulin Rouge" might be the big winner. Matters were complicated, however, as the studios released a glut of potential nominees in the winter months.
Unlike last year when there were almost no clear front-runners in the major categories, this year it has been a little easier to draw up a set of predictions. Here then are my thoughts on four of the top categories at the Oscars.
Best Actor
The nominees are Russell Crowe for "A Beautiful Mind," Sean Penn for "I Am Sam," Will Smith for "Ali," Denzel Washington for "Training Day" and Tom Wilkinson for "In the Bedroom."
It's a bout between Russell Crowe's genius John Nash and Denzel Washington's bad cop Alonzo Harris. Crowe is the odds-on favorite, and the academy has traditionally loved performances that stress disability, such as Tom Hanks' role in "Forrest Gump." Many academy voters, however, might be reluctant to honor him two years in row (he won for last year's "Gladiator"). He has also attained a reputation as somewhat of a bad boy recently, notably after he roughed up a producer after cutting his acceptance speech short at the British Academy Awards, and that can also turn off voters. If that's the case, then Washington should score an easy victory, as many thought he should have won two years ago, when he was narrowly edged out by Kevin Spacey's performance in "American Beauty."
Best Actress
The nominees are Halle Berry for "Monster's Ball," Judi Dench for "Iris," Nicole Kidman for "Moulin Rouge," Sissy Spacek for "In the Bedroom," and Renee Zellweger for "Bridget Jones's Diary."
Among popular audiences Kidman is the most visible nominee and many fans loved her energetic performance as a courtesan in "Moulin Rouge." Critics, however, are expecting either Sissy Spacek as a grieving mother in "In the Bedroom" or Halle Berry as a waitress in love with a racist prison guard in "Monster's Ball" to win the prize. Berry's grittiness has the edge here, and she can expect to be the first African-American to win for Best Actress.
Best Director
The nominees are Robert Altman for "Gosford Park," Ron Howard for "A Beautiful Mind," Peter Jackson for "Lord of the Rings," David Lynch for "Mulholland Drive" and Ridley Scott for "Black Hawk Down."
This is the most competitive category. Scott deserves the Oscar here for the technically marvelous "Black Hawk Down," easily the best war film since "Saving Private Ryan." Conservative voters, however, might be turned off by the realistic but brutal ultra-violence. It also may hurt that the film failed to receive any other major nominations.
Altman received plenty of critical response for his work in "Gosford Park" and he has received two nominations during the past decade for the "The Player" and "Short Cuts." His anti-Hollywood establishment ways, however, could alienate him from the votes he needs.
David Lynch has long been hailed as a visionary for his avant-garde films, but "Mulholland Drive" may have proved too confusing for many.
Peter Jackson is the fan favorite for "Lord of the Rings," and critics were impressed that he was able to handle a film on such a vast scale, but fantasy films have never proved very popular at the Oscars.
That leaves Ron Howard, who many in Hollywood believe has finally come of age with the affecting "A Beautiful Mind." After 15 years of directing and plenty of critical praise, he may finally have left the image of Opie behind and be ready to take a statuette.
Best Picture
The nominees are "A Beautiful Mind," "Gosford Park," "In the Bedroom," "The Lord of the Rings" and "Moulin Rouge."
The competition comes down to "A Beautiful Mind" and "The Lord of the Rings." The highest grossing (with $294 million and counting) of the nominees "Lord of the Rings" is the most popular among fans, winning almost 50 percent of the vote in some polls. Even the best fantasy films, however, have never fared well at the Oscars, and none has ever won Best Picture. Ironically, the fact that the movie also received 13 nominations may hurt it, as voters may feel a trophy case of technical awards (which the film is sure to get) is enough of a reward.
Voters have always been swayed by stories of human struggle and biography and that greatly works toward "A Beautiful Mind's" advantage. But charges of inaccuracy and glossing over Nash's alleged homosexuality and anti-Semitic remarks could hurt the film's chances. In that case, "Moulin Rouge" could very well take home the Oscar. It has been more than 30 years since a musical last won for Best Picture, but many were enthralled by the film's lavish set designs and song numbers.
Write to Robert at rlopez@bsu.edu
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