Black Friday looks bleak for retailers, BSU study says

Shopping enthusiasts will line up long before sunrise to crowd the aisles of shopping centers and race for deals this Friday.

It's all part of the annual holiday shopping tradition Black Friday. Some stores will open as early as 5 a.m. and close as late as 11 p.m. in the hopes of attracting more customers and making more sales.

But this year's Black Friday sales could decline by about one percent, according to a new study from Ball State University. Michael Hicks, Center for Business and Economic Research, conducted the study.

According to the report, only Walmart, Kohl's and Target saw an increase in sales during the 2008 Christmas season. And, Hicks said, stores this year will be offering the worst sale deals of the last five years.

However, Darrell Sisco, senior game advisor at GameStop in Muncie Mall, said the store has always been busy on Black Friday, and he expects the same to be true this year.

"Last year, people were standing in a line that went all around the store," he said. "We are having doorbuster specials, discounts off certain games and some gifts, so we expect even more people this year."

The CBER looked at data from the last five Black Fridays. The study considered the number of shoppers, the amount each shopper spent and the number of days between the day after Thanksgiving and Christmas Eve, Hicks said.

"The fewer the days between [Black Friday and Christmas Eve], the bigger exponentially the Black Friday sales are," he said. "That's because people feel more pressured about the time."

Hicks said Black Friday turned into a national holiday in 2000 after the National Retail Federation, an industry trade group for retailers, started making surveys on Black Fridays and gave feedback to the stores. Since then, company stocks have been affected in the short term by how much they sell.

"Black Friday has really turned into a marketing and sales tool over the past decade," Hicks said. "For retailers, it's turned from being just another discount day to a day that signals where they are going to be throughout the entire season."

While customers benefit from the discounts, retailers can be negatively affected by the reduction in their prices.

"Black Friday has become a double-edged sword for them," Hicks said. "Retailers are gearing up for one day and that's really hurting them. It can really dampen their profits because some of them are really pricing right at the bottom. For consumers, it's great."

Senior criminal studies major Brittany Black works at Wet Seal in Muncie Mall. She said this will be her first time working on Black Friday.

"From what I've heard, it's going to be busy in the morning," she said. "We'll have a staff meeting and on [Friday] we'll have promotions, but we're just preparing like normal for business."

The crowds of people can also make shopping a tedious task for customers who want to go Christmas shopping that day.

"Ten years ago, there was a lot of joking about getting up early and shopping because there wasn't this mad rush," Hicks said. "Maybe more than half of all Americans are going to shop [Friday]."

Hicks recommends students shop a few days before Black Friday to look up items they're thinking of buying and to get a sense of where the item is in the store. He also advises clothing shoppers to go to stores several days before Black Friday to try them on and find the right size.

Tips for shopping on Black Friday:

  • Shop online: Staying up late on the night of Thanksgiving and shopping online while the sales are up might save some time.
  • Do some research: Some stores have already announced their discounts for Friday either online or in newspapers. Sites like consumerreports.org and about.com have the discounts.
  • Plan accordingly: It is good to dress warmly if the plan is to wait in line at 5 a.m.
  • Shop with a list: Having a list gives more control about what to buy at the time and how much to spend.
  • Bring a copy of ads: Some stores offer discounts that require a copy of the advertisement.
  • What's a deal?: Web sites such as bizrate.com and shopping.com give a sense of how much items should cost.

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