Ind. has chance of going blue

Professor accredits Obama's chance in state on willingness to spend money

Ball State University students will be holding their breaths Tuesday to find out if the state will turn blue in this year's Presidential Election.

The Hoosier state has not voted Democrat since Lyndon Johnson was elected in 1964.

Gary Crawley, assistant professor of political science at Ball State, said there is a logical reason for the tight race in the state this year.

The struggle for Indiana's 11 electoral votes is because of Obama's emphasis on funding ads and campaign expenses, Crawley said.

"Indiana is more competitive than people realize in other races like the State House," Crawley said. "In the past, Democratic candidates in the Presidential Election have written Indiana off as a Republican state. Obama decided to make it competitive."

According to Federal Election Commission data released Thursday, Obama raised $1,938,322 in Indiana. McCain has raised $1,549,267.

Obama has not only raised more money in Indiana, but has also spent more money campaigning in the state, according to the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project. From Oct. 21 to Oct. 28, Obama spent $1.3 million on television advertising, nearly four times more money than McCain.

The Wisconsin Advertising Project also revealed that in the week before Election Day, Obama spent 70 percent of his advertising funding in historically Republican states.

Ball State political science professor John Rouse said the tight race in Indiana can be attributed to economic and social disasters stemming from the Republican Party.

"[Hurricane] Katrina, arrogance from the Republican Party and bad policies from George W. Bush caused a coalition of minorities to become the majority in the state," Rouse said.

The tight race has also attracted attention from student members of Ball State political parties.

President of University Democrats Mike Uehlein said it was a promise of change from the Democratic Party that has energized voters.

"People who are usually uninterested are now excited," Uehlein said. "Obama is offering a positive message of change. He's able to talk to younger voters."

The importance placed on this year's election is discouraging to Alex Carroll, chief of staff for College Republicans.

Despite people's excitement for Indiana's possible political shift, Carroll said, Indiana has mattered in every election since joining the United States, whether it went red or not.

He said he has heard people expressing their excitement over their vote actually counting this year, but thinks they have the wrong attitude.

"Every vote always counts," Carroll said. "It's just that this year it might be a winner they're voting for."

Rouse said this year's "historic" election is more an issue of economic pressure than of ethnic background.

With the country in a state of economic crisis, Indiana lost about 3,300 jobs last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

However, Indiana has stayed ahead of the curve of neighboring industrial states. Indiana Business Research Center statistics found a decrease of less than 15 percent in gross domestic production from 2000 to now. Indiana is one of 15 states with this status.

Because of this economic strain, Rouse said, he is predicting a switch in power from Republicans to Democrats.

A survey by the Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne between Thursday and Saturday showed Obama and McCain tied at 47 percent in Indiana.

Nationally Obama leads by an average of 6.4 percent, according to a Bloomberg report released Sunday. The results were found by averaging polls from Fox News and CBS News.

Crawley acknowledged the relatively close race in Indiana and predicted an outcome falling within a one to two percent margin of difference between the parties.

"The Obama campaign has energized people to vote, but we may also see the opposition voting at higher levels because of the perceived threat," Crawley said.


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