Fresh off one of the most controversial wars in our nation's history, two potential wars loom on the horizon, each of which would make the Iraq War look paltry in comparison.
Recent developments in Iran and China have set those countries on what might as well be collision courses with the United States. Let's start with Iran, which despite international pressure continues to pursue nuclear technology. Officially they only want the technology to build power plants. This claim is laughable considering that Iran sits on some of the world's richest oil deposits. More likely is that the nuclear material the facilities produce will be enriched and ultimately weaponized.
Iran with nuclear weapons is a frightening thought. Iran would be in position to intimidate other states in the region or even annihilate Israel. Perhaps most importantly though, extremists in the Islamic Republic, which the Department of State classifies as a terrorist sponsor, would potentially employ nuclear weapons in acts of terror.
How winnable would the war be? According to "The World Factbook," an online database maintained by the CIA, Iran has just under 12.5 million men who could be called upon for military service. Iran would be no match for us, though they would certainly be more formidable than Iraq. Through superior technology our victory would be assured, but it would be far more costly in dollars and lives.
As formidable as a war with Iran would be, it pales in comparison to the absolute horror promised by war with China. Last week China passed a law that mandates military action against Taiwan if the island declares independence.
Taiwan hasn't been under mainland rule since 1949, when Chaing Kai Shek and his nationalist followers fled there after losing their civil war to Mao Tse-Tung's communist forces. However Beijing still claims Taiwan is part of China, even though they exercise no real authority on the island. Taiwan has stopped short of declaring independence, but lately has shown signs of moving in that direction.
Despite our official "One China" policy, the U.S. has strongly supported Taiwan, including selling weapons to the island. In addition, President Bush has pledged that the U.S. will defend Taiwan if attacked.
A war with China would be almost unimaginable in scale. The Chinese have a nuclear arsenal and the Cold War nightmare of a nuclear winter could well be realized in a war with China.
If an all out war with China were fought conventionally it would be on the scale of a World War. China has over 208 million men who could be called upon for military service (that's more than two thirds the entire U.S. population). Hopefully the war would be something less than full scale. The alternative is a war that will take many years and require unprecedented sacrifices, or even nuclear war.
How likely are these conflicts? If it's verified that Iran is trying to build nuclear weapons, or if Taiwan is attacked, the U.S. will be left with little choice but to intervene.
And as for justification? In 1981 Israel destroyed a nuclear weapons facility in Iraq with a single strike. This may be the answer in Iran. As for Taiwan, risk must be measured against reward. For my money, though defending Taiwan would be righteous, we should not allow ourselves to be sucked into a gargantuan war to settle the political status of one island.
Write to Jake at
jymoore@bsu.edu
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