By the end of the week, the Democratic National Committee will choose a new chairman. Former Vermont governor and presidential candidate Howard Dean is considered a lock, following Monday's withdrawal by Tim Roemer, a former congressman from Indiana and Dean's last remaining opponent.
Dean's far left image has many moderate Democrats cringing at the thought of him leading the party. Supporters point out that as chairman, Dean would be more involved with fundraising than setting policy. Fundraising is perhaps Dean's greatest strength, but the chairman also plays a critical role as party spokesman, and past statements such as, "If Bill Clinton could be the first black president, I can be the first gay president," make many Democrats nervous about having Dean in that role. Former President Clinton and his wife Senator Hilary Clinton -- widely regarded as the early favorite for the party's 2008 presidential bid --- are reportedly among those leery of a Dean-led party.
From the perspective of an independent, Dean's rise seems puzzling. Conventional wisdom says for liberals and conservatives to be elected president, they must lock up their respective bases, then move to the middle. Since the liberal and conservative bases are roughly the same size, whichever candidate is more successful in wooing moderates should swing enough states to secure an electoral vote victory.
However, Dean's rise seems to represent a leftward move for the party. This suggests Democrats reject the idea that John Kerry needed to secure more moderate voters, and believe instead that he wasn't quite liberal enough.
Winning the chair is an impressive rebound for Dean, who last year went quickly from front-runner for the Democrats' presidential nomination to an also-ran. As with the party chairmanship, Dean's pursuit of the party's presidential nomination was troubled by his ultraliberal image. Party operatives feared it would turn off critical swing voters and ultimately make victory in the general election unlikely. After a disappointing third place finish in the Iowa caucus, Dean gave his infamous "I have a scream" speech and John Kerry was well on his way to the nomination.
The timing of Dean's rise adds even more significance. Vice President Dick Cheney has made abundantly clear that he won't run to replace President George W. Bush, meaning Republicans will largely be forfeiting the advantages of incumbency which could make 2008 a golden opportunity for Democrats to retake the White House. If, as many expect, the 2008 nominee will be Hillary Clinton (whose reputation is decidedly more liberal than her husband's), one would expect Democrats to try to hedge with as many moderates as possible.
With this in mind, until Dean recently clinched victory, the "Anybody But Dean Movement" (as MSNBC's Howard Fineman calls it) had been active. Reportedly, current chairman Terry McAuliffe has declined Clinton requests to stay on, while Newsweek reports that New Mexico governor Bill Richardson (a member of President Clinton's cabinet) had proposed to minimize Dean's visibility as chairman by creating a new position that would essentially be "spokesman for the party."
If Democrats feel they don't need the middle, and that John Kerry might've won if only he'd been more liberal, then Dean's assent makes sense. However, if the prevailing wisdom is correct, and a failure to reach enough moderates is what actually caused Democrats to lose an election they should have won, then the Democrats are likely taking a giant step toward handing the Republicans another four years in the Oval Office.
Write to Jake at jymoore@bsu.edu
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