Many hardcore Kerry supporters have kept the axiom "where there's smoke, there's fire" in mind in regards to reports of voting machine malfunctions and exit-polling inaccuracies.
They ask, "has the election been stolen?"
A quick crawl through the web yields many compelling theories and investigations. However, the trails of smoke do not lead to a smoking gun.
That's not to say that a "vast, Right-wing conspiracy" did not manage to steal the election, but rather there is just not enough evidence to make a sound case.
In this situation, "A" equals the voting irregularities and "B" equals the hypothetical Right-wing plot. One cannot just leap from A to B. A solid connection must be constructed between the two to prove a correlation.
Faulty "If A then B" reasoning tends to pop up often in those who are particularly firm and zealous in their world views.
A few weeks ago I had the distinct pleasure of e-mailing with someone whom one could label an "anti-abortion activist." (Sorry, but I find it difficult to call someone pro-life when they advocate public stonings of anyone who expresses a pro-choice or even moderate pro-life position.)
He continually made simplistic "If A then B" leaps. For example, he compared Singapore with Los Angeles to "prove" that places with draconian penalties and swift executions would have lower crime rates.
Anyone with a junior high level understanding of the scientific method knows immediately how faulty that comparison is. There are just too many variables that differentiate Singapore from LA. One could not set up experimental and control groups to obtain legitimate data.
The anti-abortion activist referred me to the Web site of Bob Enyart, a fundamentalist Christian conservative talk show host. In his quotes section I found this curious bit about Bill Clinton: "What do you get with an MTV-watching, pot-smoking President? It turns out that in Ft. Collins, Colorado, 8th graders doubled their usage of pot marijuana just in a couple of years from 1992 to 1994. Wrong ideas destroy lives, such as what you do with your own body is up to you."
Doubled their usage of "pot marijuana"? Does that mean they started packing their bowls more heavily? And they got that idea from Clinton?
All this reminded me of a professor I'd had who insisted that pornography caused rape. His evidence: Areas of cities with more adult bookstores had higher rape rates.
Not like I would know, but usually porn shops are to be found in the seedier areas of town where all instances of violent crime would be up, right? And if increased access to porn increased rape rates then rape would have skyrocketed in the past decade as universities provided students with high-speed Internet access.
Now, one should not simply write off all these ideas. The Republicans might have stolen the election. Swift executions and canings could reduce crime in LA. Maybe Ft. Collins' potheads were inspired by Clinton's admission that he "didn't inhale." Perhaps XXX magazines provoke men to go out and rape women.
In order to arrive at sound conclusions, though, one needs to construct a bridge from A to B. And it must be done with steel beams of facts and the cement of research. The one who skips that all-important step will fall into rhetorical Hades where a crow will eat his argumentative liver forever.
Write to David at swimminginbrokenglass@gmail.com
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