When the polls close at 6 p.m. on November 2 and the rest of thecountry is waiting with bated breath, there will be no doubt inRoger Hollands' mind which way Indiana will swing.
"This state has been traditionally conservative," Hollands, BallState professor of political science, said. "Once traditions arestarted, they continue."
Republican candidates in Indiana have to be moderate toconservative, and, in order to be successful, Democratic candidateshave to be fiscal conservatives, Hollands said.
The Republican Party became active in Indiana in 1856 andespecially during the Civil War, Michael Doyle, Ball Stateassociate professor of history, said.
"During that time, Indiana had one of the strongest Republicangovernors in the union: Oliver Morton," Doyle said. "Heconsolidated party power and pretty much fixed it from that pointforward."
While Indiana is primarily considered a Republican state, somecounties swing to the left.
"As you drive from Muncie to southern Indiana along the OhioRiver, you see more and more signs promoting Democrats," Doylesaid. "In the central and northern part of the state, candidatesfor elective office tend to hide the fact that they're Democrats.In the south, they seem to advertise it."
The patterns of development have made Indiana more in tune toagriculture, and people from the south who have moved to Indianafor the automobile manufacturing industry have reinforcedconservative ideals, Hollands said.
Doyle said that, among other factors, one reason Indiana has astatistically republican voting record is that Indiana has fewerurban centers than other Midwest states.
"You find more Democrats in large urban centers," Doyle said."Also, labor unions are on the decline in Indiana. This has cutinto the Democrats' funding base."
The last time Indiana went to a Democrat in a presidentialelection was in 1964 with Lyndon Johnson and Hubert Humphrey.
"You have to look at the mix of gubernatorial and senatecandidates," Hollands said. "During the 1964 election, thetelevised debates swayed so many voters."
Indiana voters are more likely to split the ballot when theyvote, Doyle said.
"Voters in Indiana, at the state level, look at the person morethan the party," Doyle said. "You find people like Evan Bayh, whoare middle of the road. He rarely calls attention to the fact thathe is a Democrat. He focuses on the policies rather than his partyaffiliation."
While Indiana usually has some Democratic congressionalrepresentatives , Hollands said the odds of Indiana going to Kerryare low.
"Nothing at this point could change the fact that Indiana willgo Republican in the presidential election," Hollands said.
However, in this year's battleground states, Bush and Kerry arerunning neck and neck.
Sen. John Kerry has not yet locked up his base of swing statesthat voted Democratic four years ago, a new Knight Ridder-MSNBCpoll showed Thursday.
Less than two weeks before Election Day, Kerry held astatistically insignificant 1 percentage-point lead in three of thekey battleground states carried by Democrat Al Gore in 2000, wastied in a fourth and trailed President Bush in two others. All werewithin the poll's margin of error and remained toss-ups.
In Pennsylvania, Kerry led 46-45 percent. In Michigan andOregon, he led 47-46 percent. In Wisconsin, he was tied with Bush45-45 percent. In Iowa, he trailed 43-49 percent. And in NewMexico, he trailed 44-49 percent.
At least 6 percent of likely voters remain undecided in eachstate. If they break primarily Kerry's way, they could tilt almostall of these states to him. Some analysts think any voter stillundecided at this point is less likely to vote for Bush, since theyare more familiar with him as the incumbent and still reluctant tochoose him.
Voters in most of the states ranked "strong leader" tops amongthe qualities they were seeking in a president, edging out suchother qualities as bringing needed change, being honest andtrustworthy, and having a clear stand on the issues. The qualitiesthat ranked lowest included strong religious faith, caring aboutpeople and being intelligent.
Iraq divides voters in the battleground states, though notenough to turn a majority against Bush.
A majority in each state approves of his decision to go to war,with about a third in each state strongly approving the decision.Yet between 43 and 46 percent disapprove of the decision, withabout a third strongly disapproving.
Voters appeared anxious about jobs in several states but did notgive either candidate an edge on the issue.
In Colorado, Missouri and New Hampshire, as many voters say jobsare hard to find as say they are plentiful. And in two states, amajority calls jobs hard to find in their communities - 55 percentin Ohio and 63 percent in West Virginia.
Among Bush supporters, 87 percent said they are voting for himwhile 10 percent said they are voting against Kerry. Among Kerrysupporters, just 63 percent said their vote was primarily for Kerrywhile 33 percent said their vote was primarily against Bush.
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