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For those of you who haven't heard, there's a politicalconspiracy theory regarding the upcoming presidential election -- Iknow, I was shocked too! Well this one, which can be found all overthe Internet - says former President Bill Clinton and his wifeSenator Hillary Clinton are secretly hoping President Bush willdefeat John Kerry in November.
I know this sounds bizarre, and maybe there's no truth to it,but the theory is not without a certain logic. The supposed motivebehind the Clintons' alleged betrayal of Kerry is that a win by theMassachusetts Senator would ruin Hillary's best chance to becomeour first female Commander-in-Chief.
After all, if the Democrats win the White House this year, itwould be almost impossible for Hillary to wrestle the 2008nomination from President Kerry. Hillary would have to remain onthe presidential sidelines until 2012 when, going on 65 years old,she would face an uphill battle for the presidency.
In such a campaign Hillary would face one of two arduousscenarios. If Kerry were reelected, she'd almost certainly risksplitting the party by challenging Vice President John Edwards forthe Democratic nomination. Assuming she won, she'd then face aRepublican in the general election. If Kerry lost in 2008, Hillarycould probably win the 2012 primary more easily, but would have toface the incumbent Republican president that had beaten Kerry.
Neither of those possibilities is as promising for Hillary as arun in 2008, following a second term by Bush. Several factors wouldbe in her favor that year. One is that she'd be the favorite to winthe Democratic nomination. With Kerry and Edwards defeated, she'dprobably be the party's biggest star at the time and it's doubtfulany other Democrat could beat her.
Another plus for a Hillary run in 2008 is that Republicans wouldbe forfeiting the advantage of incumbency. Vice President DickCheney has already said he won't run, meaning Hillary wouldbasically be on a level playing field with her opponent.
Finally, if Bush's second term were as divisive as his first,the American people -- who tend to value political balance -- wouldlikely be more receptive to a major shift in Presidentialphilosophy.
Some say Hillary is too liberal to ever win the generalelection, but even Hillary's critics admit that she's veryintelligent. She's no doubt aware of her liberal image (which is abig political setback in this country) and probably sees theadvantages listed above as her best chance to overcome that imageand become president.
In less than three weeks one of two things happen: either Bushwill win and the stage will be set for a showdown between Hillaryand Bush's aspiring successor in 2008, or John Kerry will beelected the 44th president of the United States and Hillary's bestchance at the Oval Office will come crashing down like so many red,white and blue balloons.
So deep down, do the Bill and Hillary truly want Kerry to win?Would you in their position? They say they're willing to doanything they can to help Kerry win, though unless they want toswitch parties they can't really say anything else.
Then again, this is probably just another silly theory. Theformer First Couple both say they want Kerry to win, and there'snothing to suggest the Clinton's would be dishonest... isthere?
Write to Jake at
jymoore@bsu.edu
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