DES MOINES, Iowa -- Sen. John Kerry's startling victory in the Iowa caucuses was a comeback for the ages, a late surge that remade the Democratic presidential race at the first turn.
On a fiercely cold winter's night, Iowa's grassroots Democrats also raised doubts about the staying power of Howard Dean's antiestablishment campaign, encouraged John Edwards to fight on and dealt Dick Gephardt out of the race.
The winnowing continues next week in New Hampshire, where the Iowa survivors and Sen. Joseph Lieberman and Wesley Clark clash in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Kerry's victory was as ironic as it was remarkable.
A fourth-term senator and Vietnam veteran, he joined the race as the presumptive front-runner, then lost ground steadily in 2003, plagued by his own fumbles as well as by Dean's more nimble campaign.
The campaign reached its nadir in November, when Kerry fired his campaign manager -- and then was forced to call him and two aides who subsequently quit to apologize for saying he'd be ''better off'' without them.
Even two weeks ago, the polls suggested Iowa was a race between Dean and Gephardt. But Kerry found his campaign voice near the end, and matched it to a strong get-out-the-vote operation at a time when many Iowans remained undecided.
In the campaign's final days, he was helped, as well, by Jim Rassmann, whose life he saved in harrowing conditions in Vietnam. The two held a reunion, 35 years after the life-searing experience, and the retired Oregon police officer became a campaign supporting act unlike any other.
A survey of caucus-goers, done for The Associated Press and the networks to measure initial preferences, showed Kerry got an especially strong boost from voters who said the ''right experience'' was the most important candidate quality.
The same survey showed more than a third of caucus-goers made up their minds in the campaign's final week, and Kerry got the backing of 40 percent of them.
As winner, Kerry can count on a boost in the marathon struggle for the Democratic presidential nomination, but it's no guarantee of ultimate success.
Which helps explain why he, Kerry, Edwards and Gephardt invested many months and millions campaigning across the state.
And why Clark and Lieberman didn't.
Alone among this year's contenders, Gephardt learned this lesson the painful way. The Missouri lawmaker won the caucuses in 1988, then quickly faded in the primaries that followed and was gone from the race before the winter's snows had melted.
Michael Dukakis won the nomination that year -- he of the third-place finish in Iowa.
Dean showed he understands it as well. The former Vermont governor was the only major contender willing to leave Iowa on the campaign's final weekend. He turned up in Plains, Ga., on Sunday to stand alongside Jimmy Carter -- who sort of won Iowa in 1976. ''Undecided'' led at evening's end that year, but the Georgian -- like Dean, a former governor -- finished first among the named candidates. It was a startling showing that launched him on the road to the White House.
Kerry and Edwards know the same thing.
A few weeks ago, before a turn of fortunes in the polls, Kerry's campaign aides were claiming that a close third-place finish would signal enough support for the Massachusetts senator to propel him forward in the race.
Edwards, who has avoided the type of political attacks his rivals have employed, said during the day he, too, could survive a loss and remain a viable candidate.
Despite campaign attempts to shape expectations, it's up to the campaign donors and political players in the primary states ahead to decide what Iowa's caucus results mean for each of the four, if anything.
A disappointing showing translates into less money, which means fewer campaign commercials, which leads to poor results in later primaries. It's a downward spiral that caught Gephardt in 1988, and it's difficult to escape.
After sitting out Iowa, Lieberman, the party's 2000 vice presidential nominee, and Clark, a retired general, get their first taste of primary combat next week in New Hampshire.
Dean leads the polls there, with Clark gaining and Lieberman lagging.
For his part, Democratic chairman Terry McAuliffe sounded relieved that after months of campaigning, it was time for the voters to speak. He forecast that the party will select a nominee by March 10.
If he's right, then the main event will begin for Democrats, contesting a Republican in the White House who leads in the polls as he embarks on a quest for a second term.
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EDITOR'S NOTE: David Espo has covered presidential politics for The Associated Press since 1980.
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