Ball State football season prediction
Game 1: Illinois State at Ball State
When: Thursday, 7 p.m.
Breakdown: A game against a team from the Football Championship Subdivision might seem like a breeze, but this Illinois State team does have surprise potential. Their roster is loaded with players that have transferred from Football Bowl Subdivision schools including quarterback Jared Barnett. As a freshman, Barnett led Iowa State to a double-overtime win over then-No. 2 Oklahoma State, which cost the Cowboys a chance to play for the national championship. But Pete Lembo knows the FCS well and will surely have Ball State focused on the task at hand.
Prediction: Ball State 42, Illinois State, 20
Game 2: Army at Ball State
When: Sept. 7, 1 p.m.
Breakdown: Army always presents an unusual challenge because of its triple-option offense. In the last two meetings between the two schools Army has rushed for 402 and 341 yards, respectively. But the rushing yards hasn’t translated to points for the Black Knights and the last time they visited Scheumann Stadium, the game was over by halftime.
Prediction: Ball State 41, Army 17
Game 3: Ball State at North Texas
When: Sept. 14, 4 p.m. ET
Breakdown: The first road game for the Cardinals comes against a North Texas team that struggled to score (20.9 points per game) and allowed over 400 yards of offense per game. Ball State’s offense should shine against North Texas, especially through the passing game.
Prediction: Ball State 35, North Texas 21
Game 4: Ball State at Eastern Michigan
When: Sept. 21, 1 p.m.
Breakdown: Last season was supposed to be a breakthrough season for Eastern Michigan. Instead, the team finished 2-10 and beat Western Michigan for its only conference win. Simply put, Ball State has too much talent for Eastern Michigan and the Cardinals shouldn’t have any problems opening conference play 1-0.
Prediction: Ball State 38, Eastern Michigan 24
Game 5: Toledo at Ball State
When: Sept. 28, 3 p.m.
Breakdown: Toledo presents Ball State’s first true test on the season. The Rockets return nearly everyone on offense, including 1,000-yard running back David Fluellen. Toledo will also have revenge on its mind after Ball State defeated ranked Toledo on Election Day last season in the Glass Bowl. Expect a high-scoring shootout where one defensive play — or miscue could decide the game.
Prediction: Toledo 38, Ball State 35
Game 6: Ball State at Virginia
When: Oct. 5, TBA
Breakdown: Lembo has to be pleased the marquee non-conference game is against Virginia, not Oklahoma or Clemson. Virginia presents itself as a game similar to Indiana last season as a team trying to rebuild. Ball State isn’t intimidated by BCS opponents either after beating Indiana twice and South Florida in the last two seasons. The national headlines might see the result as a surprise, but those who follow Ball State might not.
Prediction: Ball State 27, Virginia 21
Game 7: Kent State at Ball State
When: Oct. 12, 3 p.m.
Breakdown: Ball State was a fourth quarter Jeff Garrett dropped interception away from beating Kent State on the road last season. But Kent State won on its way to one of the best seasons in program history. Darrell Hazell is gone to Purdue, but do-everything Dri Archer and running back Trayion Durham are still with the Golden Flashes. Still, the loss of Hazell should bring Kent State down to Earth.
Predicition: Ball State 31, Kent State 20
Game 8: Ball State at Western Michigan
When: Oct. 19, 2 p.m.
Breakdown: P.J. Fleck is the new man at Western Michigan and is probably the most mysterious team in the Mid-American Conference this season. The Broncos have talent with Tyler van Tubergen at quarterback and can run the ball. Ball State needed overtime to beat Western Michigan at home last season with a Bronco field goal as time expired. Fleck brings energy and life into Western Michigan, but Lembo has the advantage on experience.
Prediction: Ball State 24, Western Michigan 21
Game 9: Ball State at Akron
When: Oct. 26, noon
Breakdown: A road Mid-American Conference game brings a challenge to any team. But Ball State has made a habit of finding ways to win on the road in the MAC (see Toledo, Central Michigan, Ohio). In terms of talent, Ball State has too much on offense and Akron has won one MAC game in the last three seasons.
Prediction: Ball State 42, Akron 17
Game 10: Central Michigan at Ball State
When: Nov. 6, 8 p.m.
Breakdown: Central Michigan finished 2012 hot by winning its final three regular season games and the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl against Western Kentucky. Ball State had a comfortable road win against Central Michigan last season and the Chippewas aren’t as talented this season. But don’t be surprised if running back Zurlon Tipton makes the game interesting.
Prediction: Ball State 35, Central Michigan 21
Game 11: Ball State at Northern Illinois
When: Nov. 13, 8 p.m.
Breakdown: The road to the MAC West title will go through Northern Illinois. A Ball State win over Toledo could make the winner of the game punch their ticket to Ford Field. The last two matchups have been tight and the Cardinals let last year’s game get away from them late. This game will be a trademark midweek high-scoring MAC game, with a slight advantage going to the home team.
Prediction: Northern Illinois 41, Ball State 35
Game 12: Miami at Ball State
When: Nov. 29, TBA
Breakdown: Ball State will get over two weeks to prepare for its final game of the season, which could have bowl spot implications. Miami is without quarterback Zac Dysert, who the RedHawks relied on heavily in the offense. Ball State will have the easy advantage on offense against Miami as the Cardinals end the regular season with a win.
Prediction: Ball State 38, Miami 17
Predicted record: 10-2, 6-2 MAC (3rd place in MAC West)
