Rep. Mike Pence's decision not to challenge Sen. Evan Bayh for his Senate seat in 2010 Senate was not surprising for those following politics at Ball State University.
Pence, a Republican from Columbus, represents East Central Indiana from Columbus to Decatur.
Students and faculty say he has a safe seat in Congress, and running again as an incumbent may help turn around the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives.
Dan Reagan, associate professor of political science, said Pence has risen quickly in Republican circles.
'It's a lot to ask him to risk running against Senator Bayh,' he said. 'He'd be potentially giving up a lot. It's a real roll of the dice with a lot to lose.'
Reagan said Bayh is beatable, but the race would be difficult.
'[Pence] has a national presence,' he said. 'He has all the resources to bring to the Senate race, but Bayh would be an able candidate as well.'
Pence is the third-ranking Republican in the House, a national spokesperson for conservatism and supporter of a federal shield law for reporters.
He has affected the Ball State community by working with administrators and the Department of Energy to get funding for the geothermal project. He also helped with job creation by bringing a wind energy company called Brevini Wind to Yorktown. Last summer, he disappointed some in the community when he refused to seek earmarks, or targeted federal funds, for his district, including money for projects to renovate storm-water drainage on Riverside Avenue and address safety on McKinley Avenue.
Indianapolis news station WISH-TV presented a poll last week that measured public opinion for Pence versus Bayh. The poll by Rasmussen Reports showed that people favored Pence over Bayh 47 percent to 44 percent. Pence said there were other reasons he stepped down despite popularity.
Pence said in a letter addressed to friends and family Friday that he's staying in the Congressional race for two reasons. He considers himself responsible for shaping the Republican comeback within the House, and he believes Republicans will win back the majority in the House of Representatives in 2010.
Reagan said after the surprise upset in Massachusetts, momentum is going to be in the Republicans' favor and that Republicans regaining control of the House isn't impossible. Republicans will gain some seats because this is an off-year election, Reagan said.
'Pence is more popular, and some people are pointing at that poll,' Reagan said. 'But Pence knows from a poll taken in mid-January there could be a world of difference eight months later.'
Reagan said Pence could run in the 2012 Senate election, but he said it's unlikely that anyone would challenge Republican Sen. Richard Lugar, the 79-year-old incumbent.
'If [Lugar] says, 'I'm full of vim and vigor and ready to run again,' Pence probably won't challenge him,' Reagan said.
Political science professor Brandon Waite said he wasn't surprised Pence decided not to run for senator. He said Pence would have to contend with Bayh's budget of nearly $15 million, and for Republicans, it would be an uphill battle.
'Instead he's focusing money on races that are a little more strategic,' Waite said.
Pence's 100 percent conservative views, as rated by the American Conservative Union, have extended to his views about education.
Waite said he had no comment about how Pence has affected or tried to promote higher education.
College Republicans treasurer Corey Reason said he's disappointed Pence isn't running against Bayh for the Senate seat.
Reason said there are two hot topics he's following in the 2010 elections: the general assembly races and the House races in Washington, and he's confident Pence can overtake seats in Congress.
'[Pence] is a very strong opponent,' Reason said. 'To be honest, I don't know if he had any real intention of running for Senate.'
Mike Uehlein, president of University Democrats, said, based on the political outlook, Pence has a better shot of taking a seat in Congress than the Senate.
'It's rough,' he said. 'Republicans still have not regained popularity from the [George W.] Bush election.'
Uehlein said Bayh has a lot of supporters in Indiana, and he's not afraid of opposing hard issues, such as health care.
'Bayh is a great politician,' he said. 'Pence knows it would be a hard race against Bayh. But I think Mike Pence is a great politician too.'
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