A bowl game. That's what Ball State University fans want and expect from the 2007 football team. With Thursday's loss to Miami University, that mission became a whole lot harder.To have a realistic shot at a bowl game the Cardinals must finish the season 7-5 or better, because no 6-6 Mid-American Conference team is going to receive a bowl berth. That means they must win seven of their last 11 games, a tall order when you consider their out-of-conference schedule.Ball State should beat Western Kentucky University when they play in mid-October, but in the other four non-MAC games the Cardinals will be the underdogs.This isn't strictly because all four are on the road. That certainly makes it a lot harder, but it is more about who Ball State will be playing. Two games are against Big Ten opponents Indiana University and the University of Illinois. One is against a top Big XII team with the University of Nebraska. The last, well that is against the U.S. Naval Academy. Navy went 9-4 last season, losing to Boston College in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.Let's say Ball State loses those four games, which is the most likely outcome. Ball State would have five losses. It would then have to run the table in the MAC just to finish 7-5. That won't be easy to do with Central Michigan University, the defending MAC champions, and a road game at Western Michigan University, which went 8-5 last season.Simply put, the Cardinals shot themselves in the foot with the Miami loss. The loss could haunt them throughout the 2007 season. If the Cardinals don't get a bowl invitation, this was the game that cost them the chance to play in their first bowl game since the 8-4, 1996 season.It is highly unlikely, especially after Thursday's performance, that Ball State will win its last six MAC games. If the team can't beat Miami at home it will not win six straight in the MAC, plain and simple. This means one of the four out-of-conference road games mentioned earlier must be a win. The two games Ball State is most likely to pull the upset in are the two Big Ten games.Illinois was just 2-10 last year, including 1-7 in the Big Ten. Illinois lost its first game 40-34 to University of Missouri. However, the loss looks a lot better when you consider Missouri was 8-5 last year with a one-point loss to Oregon State University in the Sun Bowl.Indiana will be the harder of the two games. Indiana's team is not only better than Illinois', but it knows from last year that Ball State is capable of beating it. As you might recall, Ball State squandered a 23-7 halftime lead to Indiana, losing 24-23 just one year ago this Sunday.It's a long season, and we are only one week into it. The Cardinals have a lot of work to do, and it all starts Saturday when they play at Eastern Michigan University. Ball State won last year 38-20 and the Eagles finished 1-11 on the year. Ball State should dominate the game, but then again, most of us would have said that about the Miami game.
Write to Levin at levintblack@gmail.com
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