If you followed the news over the past week, you surely saw the capture of several British navy personnel supposedly found in Iranian waters. Reminiscent of the 1979 Iran Hostage crisis, these crewmembers were taken into custody against their will.
This crisis might be resolved by armed intervention into Iran from British troops to free the captured crewmen. While Prime Minister Tony Blair postures on the international political stage, I suspect plans are already being drawn up if force is actually called upon.
If Israeli crewmen were taken hostage in similar circumstances, Tehran would have been bombed during the first few hours. In the very least, Mossad special forces would have infiltrated Iran to secure the release of the hostages. If you have seen "Munich" and if you paid attention to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon last year, you know that Israel does not mess with diplomatic resolutions. They act and allow the international community to solve the ensuing mess.
However, it appears as though the British think diplomacy represents an adequate response. They are grossly mistaken. The kind of crap that comes out of Ahmedinejad's mouth should not be taken lightly. Furthermore, you don't deal with madmen - they don't reason with logical arguments. Force might be the only solution that works.
If this does happen, we have a third world war. The United States and Israel would surely back the United Kingdom in any endeavor against Iran. Both countries are already itching to do this and this hostage predicament might be a modern day Arch Duke Ferdinand assassination - precipitating a war with entangling alliances.
I will reserve arguing for or against a war for future columns, if and when such an armed conflict takes place. Instead I want to focus on what would happen if we go to war with Iran.
To my knowledge, there is no modern country that has successfully engaged in and won a three front war, or three wars on different fronts. As you know, the United States has forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and both fronts are strapped for soldiers as is.
Any armed confrontation with Iran would surely pull valuable resources from both places and I can't imagine the incursion into Iran would resolve quickly. Therefore, the United States would either draft or be forced to completely withdraw all forces from all regions.
Whether the impetus for our military involvement in the Middle East is predicated on the fight against terror, oil or support for our allies, the fact remains that we simply do not have the resources to fight Iran. The country would have to mobilize for total war, the likes of which has not been seen since World War II.
I am not suggesting that an invasion of Iran is a good thing; I simply want to iterate the importance of the events that are transpiring. I have no solution because I do not know that a good one exists. What kind of response do you give to a nation that has repeatedly said that Israel must be wiped off the map, has pursued nuclear weapons and has taken hostages on seemingly erroneous circumstances? If diplomacy has not worked before with such a government, why would it work now? As members of the current administration dance like idiots at correspondence dinners, the international political climate continues to fall apart.
This has direct relevance to each and every male student of draft age at Ball State University and, more than likely, female students as well. Keep this in mind as you watch the news this week. I almost wish we could go back to reports on Anna Nicole Smith's death - almost.
Write to Chris at caflook@bsu.edu
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