I'm never one to envisage the future in detail. Most people who make an attempt to do so predict poorly.
Remember "Back to the Future II?" We are only eight years away from Marty McFly in his hover DeLorean and I don't see any hint of a Mr. Fusion-powered flying car.
Furthermore, I've been waiting five years for HAL, but I do not see him anywhere, let alone on an expedition to Jupiter.
However, I think we can look at trends that can be used to speculate the general nature of things to come. Unfortunately, what is imminent is another economic downturn.
After the stock market tanked during the early part of this decade, many investors pulled their money out of Wall Street, causing the 2001 recession. Fearing future dot-com bursts, terrorist attacks and additional "accounting mistakes," investors pumped money into the housing market. The historically low interests rates only fueled Americans' new unquenchable thirst for property. Like the onset of Michael Jordan's second comeback, the future looked bright.
Those who already owned property and had equity refinanced their homes to some of the lowest interest rates in U.S. history. Instead of putting that equity right back in, Americans cashed out and bought everything that Wal-Mart had not nailed down. This "consumer confidence" was used as a market indicator of economic growth and heralded the end of the 2001 recession. Apparently buying towels at Target and frequent trips to Applebee's has become as significant an economic indicator as real-wages are not. Nevertheless, consumer spending prevented the first 21st century recession from cutting too deep and lasting too long. It was a cushion and nothing more: a pillow made of credit cards, second mortgages and consumer credit. Americans laid down to sleep, ignoring the jagged edges and lumpy sides.
The prices of houses are now beginning to fall. I believe the devaluation will eradicate this cushion. Another terrorist attack or similar disaster (think Katrina on crystal meth) will cause a sharp decrease in market value. The ridiculously high cost of energy, education and the lack of a real-wage increase will fuel a downward cycle.
There will not be another pillow. People will not have another cash cow to milk.
This in and of itself is nothing new. Recessions have come and gone and our nation has weathered through. Usually we come out the other side more robust than ever.
However, the most alarming aspect to all of this is the impending retirement of millions of Baby Boomers. The first wave of boomers approaching retirement age will arrive in the next several years. They're going to want what they were promised, billions of dollars in Social Security. It's not going to be there. They will be forced to stay in the workforce, preventing the following generations' upward mobility and maybe even forcing mass unemployment.
I wish I could be an optimist. I really do.
Maybe people will count their losses and pull money from the falling housing market and have a voracious new interest in stocks. Perhaps (and this is really laughable to me) Baby Boomers will retire early on less and be happy with a much more Spartan lifestyle - accepting old age graciously and with dignity.
However, what if things don't go well? Imagine another Great Depression starring George W. Bush as Herbert Hoover, Baby Boomers as the Bonus Army times 1000, former automobile manufacturers as Great Plains Okies and renewed interest in the extremes of fascism and communism.
If I am right, I wonder who will play FDR and what will be the contemporary New Deal if there is even hope for such things.
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