This week is going to set the stage for national news in the year to come. The selection of our next leader is beginning right now. Monday's Iowa Caucus results came in too late to be included in this column, but the winner of the first contest in the race for the democratic nomination will determine the details of the next stage in the campaign. Iowa was supposed to be a two-way race between nationwide front-runner Howard Dean and longtime congressman Dick Gephardt, who won the Iowa caucus in 1988.
Instead, polls show Dean and Gephardt in a statistical dead heat with Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. Kerry has defied expectations by becoming the front-runner, if by a slight margin, and Iowan voters have breathed new life into the Edwards campaign after pundits had written off the candidate. What began last night in Iowa will continue next week in New Hampshire and the next week in South Carolina, as the people of the states begin to make their preferences known.
While the Democrats battle each other, President Bush has taken advantage of his position as an incumbent not facing a primary challenge and remained above the political fray. Tonight, though, he will deliver what could be his last State of the Union address. The speech will set the tone for the final year of his term -- and his campaign. White House officials say the president will urge Congress to make his tax cuts permanent and privatize Social Security. Staffers describe the speech as optimistic and forward-looking, but say it will also take stock of the administration's accomplishments.
This is Bush's chance to shine. During such a major address, the president can command the national spotlight in a way none of his Democratic opponents can match. He can spend the night touting his accomplishments and looking presidential. But soon, very soon, he's going to have to enter the fray. Over the course of the next several weeks, the democratic field will narrow. Already, Carol Moseley Braun dropped out of the race last week. As the early primaries and caucuses take place and more candidates leave the race, the Democrats will be less and less distracted by fighting among themselves and more ready to go head-to-head with the president. Even on the weekend before the first contest to determine the winner of the democratic nomination, the major candidates found enough time to slam the president for appointing Charles Pickering a federal judge without Congressional approval. Pickering wrote a law-review article on ways to protect laws banning interracial marriage from the Supreme Court. Candidates and other prominent Democrats noted the irony of Bush appointing such a man the day after laying a wreath on Martin Luther King Jr.'s grave. Sen. Edward Kennedy added that it highlights the Bush administration's shameful opposition to civil rights. The war of words will only intensify as time goes on. We don't have to make any decisions yet. We have time to sit back, watch and learn all we can about the men who want to lead us. When the time does come to make a choice, the things we see this week and in the weeks ahead should make our choice clear.
Write to Stephen at stevehj@mac.com
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