Ball State basketball has become too predictable.
Shoot the three, make the three and win.
Shoot the three, miss the three and lose.
First everything was fine and peachy in the wonderful world that exists behind the three-point arc. Everything was falling just as planned.
Before the season, Coach Buckley predicted his team would put up 30 to 35 threes each game. Against Kansas the Cardinals posted 30 attempts and the following game against UCLA, Ball State put up 34 from behind the arc.
And the sharp shooting continued, however, with less quantity. The number of attempts began to fall a bit as the season progressed, falling to the 20s instead of the 30s. It was ok, though, because the shots were still falling through the hoop.
Then the IUPUI game came.
That game Ball State nailed a record-breaking 16 3-pointers on 26 attempts.
Everyone was talking about Ball State. Ball State this, Ball State that. The Cards were the best mid-major school around in the eyes of many. At that point the only team the Cardinals had lost to was Duke and Indiana.
It was the very next game, however, that became the plague for Ball State. It was the game against Butler, perhaps it should be called D-Day.
It was that game that Ball State in which was truly exposed.
IU had exposed it slightly. The Hoosiers tried their hardest to contain the three-point shot, but Ball State still sunk 10 treys.
Butler smelled success when they watched the tape of that game though, I'm sure. The Bulldogs took a page right out of the IU game and shut down the three against Ball State.
Against Butler, Ball State made five threes, shooting 39 percent from behind the arc.
And since then, slowly, the percentages have begun to fall. Against Kent State, the Cardinals marked the lowest percentage from behind the three-point arc for not only the season but for the past ten years at 13 percent.
Since the Butler game, Ball State's highest three-point shooting game came Saturday.
Ball State nailed eight threes in the first half against Eastern Michigan.
It seemed there was some hope.
It also seemed the good ol' Maui Invitational Ball State team had reappeared with eight quick three-pointers in one half of play Saturday.
But then the second half came, and once again, the Cards went dry from behind the line, finishing with only eight threes for the whole game.
Ball State's biggest weapon has misfired, the three-point shot is no longer as reliable.
But it could be.
Petie Jackson, one of the hottest three-point shooters for the Cardinals, has spoken out about the three-ball several times. On at least three different occasions, Jackson has said, "We live and die by the three." After Saturday's game he referred to the three-point shot as Ball State's "bread and butter."
What is the solution? The Cards must spread the butter more thinly. Translation: Ball movement.
Against Eastern Michigan Saturday, Ball State's eight three-pointers in the first half all came after fairly decent ball movement. It was ball movement that kept the Eagles on their toes and eventually opened up various Cardinals behind the arc.
Opponents know Ball State is a good three-point shooting team. They are not going to leave Chris Williams open at corner like Kansas and UCLA did.
Now Ball State must force its opponents to leave people open. The best way to do that is better ball movement. And perhaps, rather than just putting butter on the bread, it's time too add a little peanut butter. Translation: Use Theron Smith.
Smith is averaging 18.9 points a game. That is not using him to his full potential. He has proven his moves and abilities. All he needs is the ball.
Simply put, Smith is getting the minutes, but not the play.
And, if Ball State continues to rely on the three ball for the rest of the season, going to Smith isn't that bad of an idea either. Smith averages 42 percent from behind the three-point arc. Not only can he shoot and drain them, he can also create opportunities for others.
More often than not, Smith get's double-teamed when he is dished the ball inside. And we know what that means. Someone is left alone on the perimeter, probably open for the three.
So, if Ball State continues its quest to be the best three-point shooting team in the land, then perhaps it's time to scoop a little deeper into the butter dish.
Write to Greg at Gmfallon@bsu.edu
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